Ok, I was supposed to go to Amsterdam, but that went down the drain. I’m going to Juneau, Alaska for the 2009 World Conference on Natural Resource Modeling instead! I’m presenting a co-authored paper with Steve Stohs from the Southwest Fisheries Science Center in La Jolla (San Diego) entitled ‘A Kalman Filter for Environmental Risk: Spatio-temporal Variation in Sea Turtle Bycatch Rates.’ The abstract:
The drift gill-net fishery for swordfish off California and Oregon incidentally captures leatherback sea turtles. Leatherback turtles are endangered and it is necessary to manage the turtle take risk. Currently, the fishery is managed through a seasonal closure of an area which has experienced a relatively high turtle take rate. We model the turtle take risk as a Poisson process and apply a Kalman filter for count data in a classic formulation to estimate the take risk through time and space. The filter is extended to irregularly spaced observations. The risk is best understood as a long term average rate controlling for spatial and seasonal variations. Predictive probability distributions suggest that potential scenarios which motivated the seasonal closure are unlikely. The estimated spatiotemporal take risk gives rise to a permit scheme which manages the take risk and may improve profitability in the fishery. If permits are tradable, they could also improve efficiency in the fishing fleet.
Looking forward to take in this view!